This article is published in Aviation Week & Space Technology and is free to read until Aug 16, 2024. If you want to read more articles from this publication, please click the link to subscribe.

IAG Airlines Drive Significant MRO Demand Through 2033

British Airways aircraft on runway

British Airways and the Airbus A320 will lead IAG Group’s MRO demand over the next decade.

Credit: Stuart Bailey/British Airways

The commercial MRO potential demand for International Airlines Group is projected to surpass $24.1 billion by the end of 2033, with over 3,700 service events between 2024-33.

The 2024 edition of Aviation Week Network’s Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast projects how the world’s aircraft fleet and aftermarket will evolve over the next 10 years. The active International Airlines Group (IAG) commercial aircraft fleet is expected to decrease from just over 530 active aircraft in 2024 to just under 450 in 2033. This decrease in the active fleet will translate to a slight downtick in MRO demand during the same period. Required MRO demand for IAG will have a negative compound annual growth rate that will decrease by 0.5%.

The forecast projects that the market will be split heavily between Airbus and Boeing aircraft, with Airbus making up 70% of IAG’s fleet. The Airbus A320 family captures three of the top five airframes utilized by IAG and accounts for three of the top 10 airframes driving potential MRO demand.

Aviation Week Network’s data also projects that British Airways will secure 50% of the total MRO potential for IAG, with Vueling (22%), Iberia (18%), Aer Lingus (8%) and Level (2%) capturing the remaining portion. Engine maintenance is expected to comprise 36% of IAG’s total MRO potential, followed by components (23%) and line maintenance (22%).